Dollar falls to R$5.15: Causes, Impacts, and Economic Outlook

The US dollar has experienced a notable depreciation since the end of 2024. In December of that year, the rate reached a historic peak of R$ 6.75, driven by global uncertainties, including aggressive tariff policies in the US under the Trump administration. Now at R$ 5.15, this shows the Real appreciating by more than 10% in the last 12 months, providing new purchasing power and opportunities for expansion for Brazilian consumers and entrepreneurs.

Economic Factors Behind the Decline

The depreciation of the dollar against the real results from an intersection between Brazilian domestic policies and global dynamics. Here, we detail the main drivers:

1. Brazilian Monetary Policy: Robust . The Central Bank of Brazil maintained the Selic rate at 15%, a historically restrictive level, while January's inflation was 4.44%. This difference in real yields attracts "carry trade" – foreign investors borrow in low-interest currencies (such as the dollar) to invest in the real, generating capital inflows. As a result, the real strengthens, putting downward pressure on the dollar.

   
   

2. Strong Trade Performance : Brazil's trade surplus in January reached US$4.34 billion, driven by a 17.4% increase in exports to China, as well as firm global oil prices. This positive balance improves the balance of payments, reducing the demand for dollars and strengthening the real.

   
   

3. Global Dollar Weakness : In the US, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) – possibly two in 2026 – are weakening the dollar. Furthermore, the US Supreme Court's decision in February 2026 invalidated emergency tariffs imposed via the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act), easing pressure on Brazilian exporters. Previously, tariffs of up to 50% on Brazilian goods (such as steel and soybeans) increased costs; now, with a uniform tariff of 10-15%, Brazil gains relative competitiveness compared to rivals like China and Mexico.

   
   

4. Liquidity and Political Factors : In early 2026, reduced liquidity during holidays amplified reversals in flows, such as dividend remittances from multinational companies that temporarily boosted the dollar in late 2025. Politically, uncertainties about the succession at the Fed and potential tariff disputes add volatility but favor high-yielding emerging market currencies like the real.

   
   

Projections indicate continuity: the USD/BRL should remain at R$5.16 until the end of the quarter, possibly falling below R$5.00 in 12 months, according to macroeconomic models. However, since no macroeconomist has a crystal ball , and risks of a slowdown in the US or geopolitical tensions (e.g., BRICS vs. the dollar) could reverse this, it is also advisable to take advantage of the current low prices to buy and reduce the cost base.

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Impacts on the Brazilian Economy and International Investments

This fall in the dollar creates varied effects on the Brazilian economy and international investments. A cheaper dollar means that fewer reais are needed to acquire assets in USD – for example, converting R$100,000 now yields approximately US$19,400, compared to US$14,800 at previous peaks. This reduces costs for:

• Business Investments : Facilitates the acquisition of equipment, real estate, or startups abroad. Sectors such as technology, e-commerce, and agribusiness benefit, as imports become cheaper.

• International Expansion : With lower tariffs, exporting to the US becomes more viable, boosting dollar revenues which, when converted back, are worth more in reais.

• Financing and Credit : Lower rates in the US make American capital more accessible, but the strong real mitigates currency risks.

However, an excessive appreciation of the real could increase the cost of Brazilian exports, affecting competitiveness. Furthermore, political uncertainties in the US – such as potential new tariffs or trade disputes – necessitate hedging.

Here is a comparative table of hypothetical costs in different exchange rate scenarios:

Scenario	USD/BRL exchange rate	Cost in BRL for US$10,000 (Initial Investment)	Potential Benefits
Pico 2024 (R$ 6.75)	6.75	R$ 67,500	High exchange rate risk; high tariffs.
Current (R$ 5.15)	5.15	R$ 51,500	24% reduction in costs; lower tariffs.
12-Month Forecast (R$ 4.97)	4.97	R$ 49,700	Greater accessibility; potential for expansion.

Perspectives for Entrepreneurs and Business Structures Abroad

For those considering expanding international operations, the current exchange rate environment offers positive prospects. Structures such as LLCs (Limited Liability Companies) in the US provide protection of personal assets, tax flexibility, and access to global markets – useful for activities such as e-commerce, real estate investments, or digital services. Combined with business bank accounts, they allow for transactions in USD without constant conversions, reducing exchange costs.

States like Delaware or Wyoming are common for registrations due to favorable regulations. These mechanisms facilitate diversification, access to local financing, and tax optimization, especially in a context of a depreciated dollar. However, compliance with regulations such as the IRS and AML is essential to avoid complications.

Final Considerations on Exchange Rate Risks and Trends

Although the scenario seems favorable, it requires balance. Factors such as a possible recession in the US or a strengthening of the dollar through American fiscal policies could reverse the trend. Monitor reliable sources and consider hedging strategies to mitigate risks.

This overview is based on data updated to February 2026, highlighting how the global economy interconnects exchange rate dynamics and international opportunities.